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Is It Too Late for a Rate Drop to Rescue the Housing Market?

 

The Housing Market Is Shifting—But Will Lower Rates Be Enough to Save It?

Over the last few years, the housing market narrative has flipped. Just a couple of years ago, headlines screamed about bidding wars, record-low inventory, and surging prices. Now, things are cooling off. Listings are rising, days on market are stretching out, and mortgage rates—after hitting 20-year highs—are finally starting to come back down.

So the big question is: Can falling rates revive the housing market?
Or is it too little, too late?

Let’s dive into what the data says.


Inventory Is Rebounding—Fast

After two years of historic supply shortages, housing inventory is making a comeback:

  • Active listings were up 25% in July 2025 vs. the year prior
  • 12 states (including Florida, Texas, and Washington) now have more homes listed than they did pre-pandemic
  • In Atlanta, housing supply rose to 4.8 months—up 33% YoY—approaching a balanced market

With more listings hitting the market, buyers are regaining some leverage. Homes are sitting longer, and sellers are starting to negotiate again. In fact, December 2024 saw homes linger on the market for an average of 70 days, the slowest turnover for that month in five years.


Prices Are Flattening—Or Falling

Nationally, home prices are up just 2.9% year-over-year—but that growth is uneven.

  • Boomtowns like Tampa and Austin are seeing prices stall or decline
  • Florida experienced a 1.4% drop in Q2 2025
  • Meanwhile, some Northeast markets (e.g. New York, Connecticut) are still seeing strong gains of 7–8%

In Georgia, the market has been relatively resilient:

  • Median sale price in 2024: up 3% to $360,000
  • In Atlanta, the median price fell 1.3% YoY to $395K by mid-2025
  • Inventory in Atlanta jumped 32% YoY
  • Mortgage delinquencies in Georgia rose 1.12 percentage points, signaling growing stress

The takeaway? Hot markets are cooling and overheated areas are correcting. But pricing power depends heavily on location.


Rates Are Falling—But Affordability Still Hurts

After peaking above 7%, 30-year mortgage rates fell to ~6.5% in August 2025—their lowest point in 10 months. And with the Federal Reserve expected to start cutting rates, we could see even more relief in the coming months.

This drop has:

  • Boosted mortgage applications by 18% YoY
  • Led to a resurgence in refinance activity (refis now make up 42% of new applications)

But here’s the catch:
Even at 6.5%, homes are still historically unaffordable.

  • Only 28% of homes are affordable to the median U.S. household
  • The max affordable price for a median-income family is now $298,000, down from $325,000 in 2019
  • Incomes have risen, but home prices and borrowing costs have risen faster

So, while falling rates help on the margins, they’re not a silver bullet.


Applications Are Up… But So Are Rejections

Another major problem? Mortgage denial rates have doubled since 2019:

  • 20.7% of purchase mortgage applications were denied in 2024
  • 25.6% of refinance applications were rejected
  • In some months, over 22% of all refi requests were denied

Why the spike?

  • Tightened lending standards
  • Lower credit scores from rising debt burdens
  • The resumption of student loan payments tanked credit scores for over 2 million borrowers
  • 1 in 4 student loan holders are 90+ days delinquent as of early 2025

This means more people are applying… but fewer are qualifying. That limits how much rate cuts can help.


Consumer Debt Is Climbing Again

The broader economic backdrop matters too. Here’s what’s rising in 2025:

  • Credit card balances hit new highs
  • Auto loan and mortgage delinquencies are creeping upward
  • Georgia, Florida, and Louisiana are seeing some of the sharpest increases in serious delinquencies
  • High insurance and property tax costs are squeezing homeowners’ budgets

The result? Fewer households qualify for loans, and many who do are maxed out on what they can afford.


So… Will Rate Cuts Save the Housing Market?

The short answer: Not entirely.

Lower rates are helping:
✅ Mortgage activity is picking up
✅ Buyers are starting to re-enter the market
✅ Sellers are becoming more flexible

But those rate cuts are also running into a wall:
❌ Home prices are still high
❌ Credit standards are tight
❌ Consumer finances are under pressure
❌ Rejection rates are rising

Even if mortgage rates fall to 5.5%–6%, the market won’t return to its 2021 frenzy. The “lock-in effect” means many homeowners with 3% mortgages won’t list unless they have to. That keeps inventory artificially tight, even as demand softens.


What Can Buyers and Professionals Do?

For buyers:

  • Get pre-approved now to lock in lower rates
  • Clean up your credit, pay down debt, and shore up savings
  • Be ready to act if the right deal comes along

For agents & lenders:

  • Educate your clients about tightened credit
  • Help them prepare documentation and improve creditworthiness
  • Focus on affordability—not just rates

Final Thoughts: A Market in Transition

We’re entering a new phase of the housing cycle.
Not a crash. Not a boom.
A slow thaw. A recalibration. A reality check.

Rates will help—but only so much.
Affordability, credit access, and consumer sentiment will determine what happens next.

So… is it too late for rate cuts to “save” the housing market?
Maybe. But it’s not too late for a soft landing—if the right steps are taken.

Written by Darin Hunter | Mortgage Professional |

 

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The Hidden Crisis That Could Crash the Housing Market in 2026

 

Everyone’s watching interest rates.
But the real threat to the housing market?
It’s your health insurance bill.

In 2026, millions of American families may face health premium increases of $500–$2,000+ per month. That kind of financial shock doesn’t just affect healthcare—it threatens mortgage payments, buyer budgets, credit scores, and ultimately, housing stability.

This isn’t speculation. It’s a scenario backed by hard data from the Fed, insurance filings, and early indicators of distress in the credit and mortgage markets.


Rising Financial Strain: A Warning Sign for Housing

While mortgage rates grab headlines, the slow build-up of consumer debt is quietly creating a storm beneath the surface.

  • Foreclosures rose to 52,800 in Q2 2025, up from just 8,100 during the pandemic and approaching 2019’s pre-recession numbers.

  • FHA loan delinquencies—often a signal of low-income borrower distress—jumped from 3.7% in 2024 to 4.8% in early 2025.

  • Credit card delinquency rates have surpassed 10.7% nationally, with poorer communities facing rates over 16%.

  • Student loan defaults surged from under 1% to 7.7% in just one quarter after payments resumed.

These are not isolated issues. They’re stacking. And now, we’re adding a massive new weight to the pile: health insurance premiums.


Brace Yourself: 2026 Health Insurance Premium Shock

After years of modest increases, 2026 is set to bring the largest jump in health insurance costs in over a decade.

Employer Plans:

  • Average premium increases expected: 9%–15%

  • Small businesses seeing double-digit renewals

  • Workers will likely pay more in payroll deductions or face reduced benefits

ACA (Marketplace) Plans:

  • Insurers are filing for 15%–20%+ rate hikes

  • Pandemic-era subsidy expansions expire at the end of 2025

  • The “subsidy cliff” returns, meaning:

    • Families earning just over 400% of the poverty level (~$128k for a family of 4) will lose eligibility

    • Some families could see premiums more than double

Real Example:

A middle-class family in West Virginia currently pays $885/month for their ACA plan. In 2026, they could pay $2,918/month without subsidies. That’s a $24,000 annual increase.


Why This Matters to the Housing Market

On the surface, health insurance may seem unrelated to real estate. But in reality, rising non-housing costs directly impact housing stability and demand.

Here’s how:

1. Reduced Mortgage Qualification Power

Higher health costs inflate your monthly budget, pushing up your debt-to-income (DTI) ratio—a key metric in mortgage approvals.
Even a $400–$700/month jump in insurance can knock buyers out of loan eligibility or drastically reduce what they can afford.

2. Increased Risk of Foreclosure

Families on tight budgets (especially FHA borrowers) may struggle to cover both mortgage payments and skyrocketing insurance costs.
Already, FHA delinquencies are rising—a clear sign of stress among low-income homeowners.

3. Delayed Home Purchases

Renters planning to buy may hit pause. Higher premiums eat into savings for a down payment, and the loss of ACA subsidies can force middle-class families to postpone their homeownership goals.

4. Slowdown in Housing Turnover

Even current homeowners may freeze their plans to upsize, downsize, or relocate if premiums spike. Expect fewer listings and longer holding periods in 2026.

5. Behavioral Shifts

Sticker shock reduces confidence. Families seeing massive deductions on their paycheck or open enrollment price jumps may opt for caution—saving more and spending less. That directly impacts real estate momentum.


2026: A Perfect Storm Brewing?

While we’re not predicting a 2008-style crash, the compounding pressures on American households are real:

  • Inflation

  • Student loan repayments

  • Rising consumer debt

  • Credit score drops

  • And now: historic increases in health insurance premiums

For lower-income households, the margin for error is razor-thin. In FHA-heavy markets (like much of the Southeast), even a small increase in defaults could bring localized housing slowdowns, more REO inventory, and distressed sales.


What Should Real Estate Professionals and Investors Do?

Stay Proactive

  • Monitor early indicators like FHA delinquencies and ACA enrollment changes

  • Watch how state regulators approve 2026 plan increases by late summer 2025

Advise Clients Realistically

  • Help buyers factor in insurance costs into pre-approvals

  • Guide sellers on market softness and longer timelines in mid-2026

For Investors:

  • Stress-test your portfolio

  • Prepare for potential vacancies or tenant payment issues

  • Look for acquisition opportunities if distressed inventory rises


Final Takeaway: Health Care IS a Housing Issue

The connection is clear: when essential costs rise, housing becomes more fragile.

2026 could be a year where health insurance—of all things—becomes the straw that breaks the camel’s back for overextended homeowners. It may not make headlines like interest rates do, but it will absolutely impact the market.

Be ready. Stay informed. And plan your strategy now.

Written by Darin Hunter | Mortgage Professional |

 

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Your Georgia Rental Portfolio Just Got More Expensive — Here’s Why

 

New law. New rules. New costs. And if you ignore them? You could lose everything.

As of July 1, 2025, House Bill 399 (now Act 315) is in effect. If you own rental properties in Georgia—particularly single-family homes or duplexes—and you don’t live here, this law changes how you do business. Ignore it, and you could be out of compliance and out of luck.

This article will break it down:
– What GA HB 399 is
– Who it affects
– What it means for your portfolio
– And what you should do—now


 What Is GA HB 399?

Signed into law on May 14, 2025, HB 399 requires out-of-state landlords who own residential rental properties in Georgia to hire a Georgia-licensed broker or Georgia-resident licensed property manager to oversee their rentals.

You can no longer self-manage your Georgia rentals from afar. The state wants a local, accountable person on file for every rental tenant and every code enforcement officer to contact.


Why Did Georgia Pass This Law?

In short: absentee landlords and Wall Street ownership were creating chaos in the housing market.

Over the last few years, Georgia’s real estate has attracted:

  • Out-of-state investors
  • LLCs with no local presence
  • Institutional landlords buying homes by the hundreds

The result?

  • Delayed repairs
  • Code violations
  • Tenants with no one to call
  • Cities with no one to cite

HB 399 is the state’s answer. It’s about local accountability and renter protection. As Representative Mary Margaret Oliver, who introduced the bill, put it: “If you want to profit from Georgia real estate, you need to be present and responsible.”


📜 What Are the New Legal Requirements?

If you’re an out-of-state owner, here’s what you must do:

  • Hire a Georgia-licensed broker or property manager
  •  If your broker is based out of state, they must employ a Georgia-resident licensed agent
  • Applies to single-family homes and duplexes
  • Provide tenants with that local manager’s contact info
  • Be available to code enforcement or local government when needed

Noncompliance opens the door to legal risk, delays in evictions, and potentially costly enforcement actions.


Who Is Exempt?

The law includes limited exemptions:

  • Family members managing for each other informally
  • Officers of an LLC managing their own properties if licensed appropriately

But don’t get clever—these are not loopholes. If you’re running a business, even at a small scale, assume the law applies.


What This Means for Tenants

For renters, this is a win:

  • Guaranteed local contact for repairs and emergencies
  • Protection from absentee landlords
  • Better access to code enforcement and accountability

Tenants must also provide their landlord’s Georgia manager’s contact info if asked by local officials.


What This Means for Landlords & Investors

If you’re an out-of-state investor with Georgia properties:

  1. Your DIY property management days are over
  2. You must retain local, licensed representation
  3. You must update tenant communications and leases
  4. You’ll likely face increased costs—management fees, compliance updates, etc.

For many investors, this could mean:

  • Reworking your operating model
  • Reevaluating your portfolio
  • Possibly exiting the market if margins shrink

Institutional Investors: Big Adjustments Ahead

Large-scale investors, REITs, hedge funds, and iBuyers are directly in the crosshairs.

Options moving forward:

  • Establish in-state offices
  • Partner with Georgia-based brokerages
  • Build out localized staffing and compliance systems

It’s a logistical headache, but also an opportunity to improve service, reduce tenant complaints, and avoid public backlash.


Small Investors & LLC Owners: Don’t Ignore This

Even if you own just one rental home in Georgia, you are likely subject to the law unless:

  • You live in Georgia and manage the property yourself, or
  • You meet narrow family or licensing exceptions

This means:

  • Hiring a Georgia-based manager
  • Restructuring your LLC
  • Or reconsidering your long-term investment strategy

For Georgia Real Estate Agents & Brokers: This Is Your Moment

Agents: HB 399 is a business opportunity.

If you’re a Georgia-licensed broker or property manager:

  • Expect a spike in demand from out-of-state owners
  • Create clear service packages focused on compliance
  • Build referral pipelines from agents in other states
  • Offer bundled services (management, leasing, compliance, etc.)

If you’ve been thinking about launching a property management arm—now is the time.


Property Managers: Be Ready

You should expect:

  • More onboarding requests
  • More compliance questions
  • More scrutiny from local officials

Update your:

  • Website
  • Services list
  • Tenant communication systems
  • Documentation tools (so you can prove compliance fast)

Your messaging should emphasize:

  • Compliance with HB 399
  • Local presence
  • Fast, reliable tenant service

⚠️ What Happens If You Don’t Comply?

While HB 399 doesn’t list specific fines, here’s what can happen:

  • Code enforcement citations
  • Legal trouble in eviction or dispute cases
  • Risk of violating real estate licensing laws
  • Public complaints or lawsuits from tenants

Bottom line: noncompliance isn’t worth the risk.


Strategic Moves You Should Make Now

Out-of-State Investors:

  1. Audit your Georgia holdings
  2. Hire a local, licensed property manager
  3. Update leases and tenant contact information
  4. Adjust your budget for new management costs

Georgia Agents & Brokers:

  1. Market to out-of-state owners
  2. Verify your firm meets Georgia staffing requirements
  3. Offer compliance help and management packages
  4. Position yourself as a local expert in HB 399

Final Thoughts

House Bill 399 isn’t a temporary inconvenience—it’s a fundamental shift in how Georgia expects landlords to operate.

It’s about local accountability. Tenant protection. Professional standards.

If you’re already doing things the right way, this law won’t hurt you. But if you’ve been managing Georgia rentals from afar without proper support, now’s the time to make a change.

Work with trusted local pros. Get compliant. And turn this challenge into an opportunity to manage better—and grow smarter.


Need guidance? I help investors, agents, and property managers navigate Georgia’s real estate landscape every day. If you’re unsure how to respond to HB 399, let’s talk. There’s a right way to stay profitable, compliant, and respected in this new environment.

 

Written by Darin Hunter | Mortgage Professional |

 

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Beating Rising Student Housing Costs with a Family Opportunity Mortgage

 

 

“You’re about to spend $60,000 on dorms your kid will hate—when you could’ve bought a house and had the roommates pay the mortgage.”

That’s not just a catchy line. It’s a wake-up call for families navigating the rising cost of college housing.


The Problem: Student Housing Costs Are Out of Control

Did you know the average room and board at a public university is now $12,770 per year? That’s more than most in-state tuition bills—and it’s climbing fast.

For families with college-bound kids, these costs add up quickly. Four years of dorms can run over $50,000–$60,000, with zero return on investment. You’re writing checks that disappear into the void—money you’ll never see again.

But what if those same housing dollars could help build equity in a home instead?


The Solution: The Family Opportunity Mortgage

Enter the Family Opportunity Mortgage—a little-known but powerful loan option offered through Fannie Mae.

It allows you to buy a home for a family member—like a college student or aging parent—and finance it as if it were your own primary residence, even if you won’t live there.

Why It Matters:

Normally, if you try to buy a second property that you don’t plan to live in, the mortgage is treated as an investment property—which means:

  • Higher interest rates
  • Bigger down payments (20–30%)
  • Stricter qualification rules

But with the Family Opportunity Mortgage, you can:

  • Put as little as 5% down
  • Get low, primary-residence interest rates
  • Avoid the strict limits of investment or second-home loans

It’s designed specifically for situations where a family member cannot qualify for a mortgage on their own—typically due to limited income or credit history. Think:

  • A college student with no job
  • An elderly parent on a fixed income
  • A disabled adult child

You, as the buyer, must qualify based on your own income and credit—but you don’t have to live in the home. The family member being assisted must, for at least one year.


Key Program Highlights

Family Opportunity Mortgage Basics:

  • Low Down Payment: Just 5% down (vs. 20–30% for investment loans)
  • Lower Interest Rates: Treated as a primary residence loan
  • Credit Requirements: Usually 620+ FICO, and <45% debt-to-income ratio
  • Occupant Rules: Family member must live in the home and be unable to qualify on their own
  • No Distance Rule: Property can be near your primary home

This program gives you the best of both worlds: affordable financing terms, without the need for the family member to be on the loan or have strong credit.


Real-Life Example: College Student Housing

Let’s say your daughter is attending State University. Dorm housing and meal plans? Easily $12,000+ a year. Off-campus apartments? Expensive, crowded, and often far from campus.

Now imagine you find a modest two-bedroom condo near campus for $200,000.

With a Family Opportunity Mortgage, you put 5% down ($10,000) and finance the rest. At today’s rates, your monthly payment (including taxes and HOA) might come out to $1,500/month.

Your daughter lives in one bedroom. She rents out the other to a roommate for $750/month. Your effective cost? $750/month—comparable to dorm costs.

But instead of throwing that money away, you’re building equity in a property you own. And after four years, you could:

  • Sell the home (possibly at a profit)
  • Keep it and rent to other students
  • Pass it on to younger siblings heading to the same school

It’s student housing turned investment vehicle.


Real-Life Example: Helping an Aging Parent

Now let’s flip the script.

Your dad lives alone, struggling to afford rent or facing a costly assisted living situation. You want to bring him closer, but housing is tight.

With the Family Opportunity Mortgage, you can buy a small home or condo nearby—only 5% down and a competitive rate—giving your dad a comfortable, independent space.

It’s often cheaper than senior rentals or facilities, and instead of spending thousands a month on rent or care, you’re investing in real estate that stays in the family.


What About Other Options?

❌ Co-signing a Loan:

  • Requires your family member (like your kid) to be on the loan and title
  • Complicated if they have no income or weak credit
  • Ties their financial future to a mortgage early on

❌ Buying as an Investment Property:

  • Requires 20–25% down
  • Higher rates and stricter underwriting
  • Can’t use it as a second home if your child will be the primary occupant

✅ Family Opportunity Mortgage:

  • Low down payment
  • Lower rates
  • Simpler underwriting (you qualify, not them)
  • Your loved one benefits—without the financial strain

A Strategic Wealth-Building Tool

This isn’t just about saving money—it’s about building wealth for your family.

Instead of paying rent to dorms or landlords, you:

  • Build home equity
  • Capture property appreciation
  • Retain ownership and control
  • Potentially create future passive income

It’s also about creating stability and comfort for the people you care about—whether that’s your child away at school or a parent who needs a safe place to live.


Important Considerations

A few things to keep in mind:

  • You’re taking on a second mortgage, so make sure your finances are solid.
  • PMI (private mortgage insurance) applies if you put less than 20% down.
  • Not all lenders are familiar with this program—work with someone experienced.

Also, it might not be advertised directly as a “Family Opportunity Mortgage”—but if a lender offers Fannie Mae loans, they should know how to structure it once you explain the intent.


Final Thoughts

The Family Opportunity Mortgage is a smart, flexible way to address rising housing costs—while turning family needs into long-term investments.

If you’re facing big dorm bills or worried about an aging parent’s living situation, don’t overlook this tool. It could save you money, build equity, and give your loved ones a better place to live.

If you found this helpful, share it with someone who’s navigating college or caregiving decisions. And if you have questions or want help running the numbers for your scenario, I’m here for you.


Written by Darin Hunter | Mortgage Professional |

 

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America Is Becoming a Renter Nation

 

 

You’re a renter.
Get over it.

Not because you’ve made bad choices or done something wrong, but because the game is changing.

Like it or not, America is drifting toward becoming a renter nation. And the wild part? This shift isn’t just about you or your personal circumstances. It’s about something much bigger: the American Dream is being rewritten in real time.


The Rise (and Stall) of the American Dream

After World War II, America reshaped itself. Jobs were booming, returning veterans needed homes, and the government responded. Programs like the GI Bill, FHA loans, and VA mortgages made homeownership not just possible but expected.

This was the golden age of the 30-year fixed mortgage, affordable land, and suburban expansion. Buying a home wasn’t just about shelter. It was about stability, freedom, status, and wealth-building. Homeownership was a rite of passage, your first mortgage was like your first suit: a symbol of adulthood.

But fast-forward to today, and that dream is fading fast.
The tools of ownership still exist but for many, they’re completely out of reach.

You can’t build equity if you can’t afford to get in the game.


Why the Dream is Slipping Away

We’re not just seeing a market slowdown. We’re seeing a systemic transformation in how Americans access (or don’t access) real estate. Here’s why.

1. Prices and Rates Are Crushing Buyers

Home prices have surged over 118% since 2000—far outpacing wage growth.

  • In 2000, the average home cost $125,000.
  • In 2024 that number has ballooned to $428,000.

Meanwhile, mortgage rates have jumped from under 3% during the pandemic to 8% in some markets.

To put it in real terms:

  • A $350,000 home at 3% = ~$1,400/month
  • At 7% = ~$2,300/month

That’s nearly $11,000 more per year, and we haven’t even added property taxes or insurance yet.

2. Down Payments Are a Dealbreaker

A 20% down payment on today’s average home?
That’s over $85,000. Even 10% is still $42,000+ before closing costs.

Most young buyers simply don’t have that kind of liquidity. According to Bankrate, only 32% of millennials have enough savings for a down payment. Gen Z is even further behind.

It’s not laziness. It’s not irresponsibility. It’s a structural problem that leaves working Americans locked out of ownership and locked into rent.

3. Investors Are Buying the Dream

While individual families are struggling to save, institutional investors are buying homes at scale.

In cities like Atlanta, Phoenix, and Tampa, over 1 in 4 homes are being snapped up by investors, often for cash.

These homes don’t go back on the market. They become long-term rentals. Worse yet, many are now being built never to be sold, in entire build-to-rent communities. The result?

  • Less inventory
  • Higher prices
  • More renters

This isn’t a conspiracy theory. It’s a business model, and it’s winning.

4. Younger Generations Are Rethinking Ownership

Millennials and Gen Z aren’t just priced out, they’re cautious for a reason.

They watched their parents lose homes in the Great Recession.
They’ve grown up seeing homeownership as a risk, not a reward.

Combine that with a culture that values mobility, experiences, and minimalism, and you have a generation more open to renting—but still deeply frustrated by the lack of access to ownership.

They don’t reject the dream. They just don’t see a clear path to it.

5. Where You Live Changes Everything

Location is destiny. In coastal cities like San Francisco or NYC, even high earners can’t afford to buy.

Meanwhile, more “affordable” areas often lack the job opportunities needed to grow. So many Americans are stuck between:

  • Rent in the city, where your career can grow
  • Or buy in the suburbs, where opportunity is limited

That’s not freedom. That’s geographic inequality.


Can We Reverse This?

Yes. But it’s going to take real reform not just wishful thinking.

Here’s what we need:

  • Down Payment Assistance: Real money. Not token grants. $25k–$50k in targeted support for middle-income families.
  • Smarter Underwriting: Count rent history. Reevaluate how student debt affects credit decisions.
  • First-Look Protections: Let renters buy in their own communities before investors swoop in.
  • Zoning Reform: Legalize duplexes, triplexes, and townhomes in single-family zones. Build smarter.
  • Shared Equity Models: Nonprofits or cities co-invest and share appreciation—lower the barrier to entry.
  • Financial Literacy: Start early. Teach credit, saving, and buying in high school and college.
  • Employer Incentives: Companies can help recruit and retain talent by offering housing support.
  • Public-Private Partnerships: Leverage city land + private capital to create affordable housing at scale.

These solutions already exist in pilot programs across the country. We just need to go bigger.


Don’t Give Up—Get Informed

We may be on the verge of becoming a renter nation.
But we don’t have to stay one.

Homeownership still matters. It’s about more than money—it’s about roots, resilience, and freedom.

So if you’re renting, don’t feel ashamed. Feel informed. Feel fired up.

The system isn’t built to help you—but that doesn’t mean you’re stuck.
There are ways forward. And we’re going to fight for them.

Not just to preserve the American Dream.
But to reimagine it—for everyone.


 

Written by Darin Hunter | Mortgage Professional |

 

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Jerome Powell, the Fed, and the Cost of Inaction

 

 

If Jerome Powell were the CEO of a Fortune 500 company, he’d likely be out of a job. His missteps as Federal Reserve Chair have left a lasting mark on the U.S. economy. From failing to act on early signs of inflation to overcorrecting with aggressive rate hikes, Powell’s decisions have rattled markets, crushed affordability for homebuyers, and strained the financial stability of millions of Americans.

In the wake of COVID-19, Washington deployed unprecedented economic stimulus—around $5 trillion in relief spending—on top of the Fed’s trillions in asset purchases. These efforts helped prevent a depression, but they also laid the groundwork for inflation. Yet Powell downplayed the risks. As late as August 2021, with prices rising, he insisted inflation would be “transitory.” The Fed kept rates near zero and continued quantitative easing even as inflationary pressures grew.

That delay proved costly. The Fed relied on lagging indicators—especially housing data—which didn’t capture real-time shifts like surging rents. By June 2022, inflation peaked at 9.1%, a 40-year high. Powell later admitted the Fed should have acted sooner. But by then, inflation was entrenched and tougher measures were required. Confidence in the Fed and its decision-making suffered.

In response, the Fed hiked interest rates aggressively from March 2022 to mid-2023, pushing the federal funds rate from near zero to over 5%. Mortgage rates skyrocketed from 3% to nearly 8%, crushing affordability. By late 2023, buying a home became more expensive than ever relative to income. First-time buyers were sidelined, refinancing disappeared, and the mortgage industry shrank rapidly. Small business loans, auto financing, and consumer credit all became more burdensome.

The effects were widespread. Monthly mortgage payments for a median-priced home surged to $2,700. Wage growth couldn’t keep up. Credit card and auto loan rates climbed, and economic uncertainty deepened. The Fed’s overcorrection may have slowed inflation, but it did so at a steep cost: stifled business growth, job losses, and reduced consumer confidence.

The mortgage sector was hit especially hard. After the 2020-21 refinancing boom, the market collapsed. Thousands of mortgage professionals lost jobs. Real estate transactions plummeted. Builders paused projects. Small banks tightened lending. Communities reliant on construction or seasonal economies began to feel the pressure.

By late 2024, inflation cooled significantly. Headline CPI and PCE dropped below 3%, and core PCE hovered near 2.7%. Unemployment inched above 4%, indicating a softening labor market. The Fed responded with three rate cuts between September and December 2024. But oddly, mortgage rates remained high—around 7%.

Why? The bond market reacted to unexpectedly strong economic reports and a slight uptick in inflation. Payroll data suggested job creation of 250,000+ per month, and CPI ticked up. These reports drove Treasury yields higher, keeping mortgage rates elevated.

However, in early 2025, the labor data was revised sharply downward. A comprehensive report showed nearly 800,000 fewer jobs had been created over the prior year. The labor market was weaker than initially believed. Markets had moved based on inaccurate data, and consumers bore the consequences.

As inflation resumed its decline and job gains slowed, Treasury yields began to fall. Mortgage rates dipped slightly below 7% by spring 2025. But despite improving conditions, the Fed paused its rate cuts. Powell cited potential inflation from rising tariffs as justification, even though actual inflation data remained stable.

This marked a shift. Powell, who had long championed “data dependency,” was now reacting to hypothetical inflation. Critics pointed out the inconsistency: the same Fed that once ignored real-time data was now paralyzed by imagined risks.

Meanwhile, economic signals continued flashing yellow. ADP data showed just 37,000 private jobs added in May 2025. In June, payrolls fell for the first time in over two years. Unemployment claims rose. Job openings declined. Small businesses were scaling back. The labor market was clearly softening.

And yet, the Fed held steady. With inflation near target and employment weakening, the case for additional easing was strong. Even the Fed’s own data showed that real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates were historically high. Tight money was choking off credit just when the economy needed support.

Housing remained frozen. Listings were low, affordability poor, and buyer demand weak. Builders slowed. Agents struggled. Lenders cut jobs. This stagnation wasn’t caused by market dynamics—it was a direct result of overly tight monetary policy.

Still, Powell defended his stance, warning of potential tariff-driven inflation. But data didn’t support that fear. Core inflation was steady. Prices hadn’t surged from trade policy. Powell’s caution had turned into inaction.

Caution has its place. But when the cost of inaction rises, leadership demands flexibility. Delayed decisions have consequences. In 2021, the Fed waited too long to hike rates. Inflation surged. In 2025, waiting too long to cut could tip the economy into a preventable recession.

Now is the time for course correction. A quarter-point cut or a clear statement of intent would help. It would ease borrowing costs and restore confidence. The Fed’s credibility depends not on being infallible, but on being responsive.

The American people have paid the price for past mistakes. They deserve leadership that learns, adapts, and acts. It’s time for Powell and the Fed to stop speculating about what might happen and start responding to what is happening. A dynamic economy needs a dynamic central bank. The future depends on it.


Written by Darin Hunter | Mortgage Professional |